Background

Notes and format last updated May 7, 2020

Starting on the May 7th update, the NY Times began including probable covid cases/deaths along with confirmed. This mostly affects death counts – for certain geographies that include probable COVID deaths in addition to confirmed, these are now added to the totals. For the time being, they were all added to the May 6th totals, causing a big spike at the U.S. level. Over time, NY Times will revise their historical counts and distribute these added deaths when they actually occurred, so the spike should fade.

Growth rates

Heat maps

  • The two heat maps below compare how quickly total cases or deaths have grown at various times in our respective geopgraphies.
  • The first plot compares growth rate for total cases; the second, growth rate for total deaths.
  • The metric used is doubling time, by which I mean how quickly total cases or deaths are doubling.
  • The plots track that doubling time at each date for our geographies. Darker colors reflect shorter doubling times, and thus periods of faster growth.
    • You can use the plots to track each geography over time and to compare the geographies to one another.
    • You can also compare the cases and death charts, to see how faster periods of death growth follow faster periods of case growth.

Case growth rates

  • This section charts the growth rate of both total and new cases for each of our respective geographies. Each geography has its own chart, and then that chart will have a trendline for total cases and new cases.
    • There are only plots for the U.S. and states because the numbers for the counties are too small to generate worthwhile trendlines in this section.
  • Note that we’re charting growth rate and not a count of cases, so don’t think of these as the standard “curve” that we hear about in the news and that we want to flatten. Instead, these growth rate charts help track more precisely what we can only estimate when we see those other curves. For these growth rate charts, if the line is above zero, the metric we are tracking (total or new cases) is continuing to grow. If the growth rate line is going up, it’s growing more quickly each day; if it’s going down but still above zero, it’s growing less quickly (but still growing). Only when the growth rate lines go below zero has the metric stopped growing.
  • Each of these two lines uses rolling windows to calculate a growth rate for that particular metric. I do the calculation differently for each to smooth out some of the large day-to-day discrepancies in new case reporting at the state level.
    • For total cases, the trendlines are a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rates in total cases. We want to see these decline (and almost all are), but they can’t go below zero. This is because we’re tracking growth rate and a growth rate line below zero would mean total cases have gone down, which can’t happen. They can only grow less quickly, which means we want to see the total case line get as close to zero as possible.
    • For new cases, the trendlines show a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rate in the rolling 7-day average of new cases. Including two rolling periods in this average helps smooth out crazy spikes at the state level that result from large day-to-day changes. Unlike the lines for total cases, we want to watch for the lines for new cases to get consistently below zero and stay there. That means that we are consistently seeing fewer new cases on a daily basis.

U.S.

Our states

Death growth rates

  • This section charts the growth rate of both total and new deaths for each of our respective geographies. Each geography has its own chart, and then that chart will have a trendline for total deaths and new deaths.
    • There are only plots for the U.S. and states because the numbers for the counties are too small to generate worthwhile trendlines in this section.
  • Note that we’re charting growth rate and not a count of deaths, so don’t think of these as the standard “curve” that we hear about in the news and that we want to flatten. Instead, these growth rate charts help track more precisely what we can only estimate when we see those other curves. For these growth rate charts, if the line is above zero, the metric we are tracking (total or new deaths) is continuing to grow. If the growth rate line is going up, it’s growing more quickly each day; if it’s going down but still above zero, it’s growing less quickly (but still growing). Only when the growth rate lines go below zero has the metric stopped growing.
  • Each of these two lines uses rolling windows to calculate a growth rate for that particular metric. I do the calculation differently for each to smooth out some of the large day-to-day discrepancies in new death reporting at the state level.
    • For total deaths, the trendlines are a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rates in total deaths. We want to see these decline (and almost all are), but they can’t go below zero. This is because we’re tracking growth rate and a growth rate line below zero would mean total deaths have gone down, which can’t happen. They can only grow less quickly, which means we want to see the total death line get as close to zero as possible.
    • For new deaths, the trendlines show a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rate in the rolling 7-day average of new deaths. Including two rolling periods in this average helps smooth out crazy spikes at the state level that result from large day-to-day changes. Unlike the lines for total deaths, we want to watch for the lines for new deaths to get consistently below zero and stay there. That means that we are consistently seeing fewer new deaths on a daily basis.

U.S.

Our states

By population rankings

This section tracks metrics for states and counties normalized for population (number of cases or deaths per million residents), and then compares these figures both for our geographies and the country overall.

States

  • This section shows tables ranking all 50 states for per populations rates of total cases, new cases, total deaths, and new deaths.
  • For each metric, in addition to the tables, the trends for the top states are plotted over time.
    • We only plot the top ten states for each metric so that the plots aren’t too crowded. But you can view the full 50-state rankings in the tables.

Total confirmed cases

Table of total confirmed cases per million residents (all 50 states)
Ranking State Cases Per Million
1 New York 19,478
2 New Jersey 18,246
3 Massachusetts 14,739
4 Rhode Island 14,366
5 District of Columbia 12,775
6 Connecticut 12,086
7 Delaware 9,973
8 Illinois 9,807
9 Maryland 9,199
10 Louisiana 8,871
11 Nebraska 7,685
12 Iowa 6,458
13 Pennsylvania 6,082
14 Michigan 5,906
15 South Dakota 5,835
16 Virginia 5,495
17 Mississippi 5,484
18 Indiana 5,437
19 Colorado 4,696
20 Minnesota 4,589
21 Georgia 4,399
22 New Mexico 3,882
23 Alabama 3,844
24 Tennessee 3,664
25 Kansas 3,528
26 New Hampshire 3,526
27 North Dakota 3,519
28 Wisconsin 3,368
29 Utah 3,293
30 Ohio 3,147
31 Washington 3,086
32 Arizona 3,056
33 California 3,047
34 North Carolina 2,956
35 Nevada 2,905
36 Florida 2,735
37 Arkansas 2,673
38 South Carolina 2,457
39 Texas 2,398
40 Kentucky 2,346
41 Missouri 2,284
42 Maine 1,798
43 Oklahoma 1,719
44 Idaho 1,673
45 Vermont 1,586
46 Wyoming 1,580
47 Puerto Rico 1,259
48 West Virginia 1,158
49 Oregon 1,042
50 Alaska 705
51 Montana 491
52 Hawaii 454

New confirmed cases

Table of new cases per million residents: rolling 3-day average (all 50 states)
Ranking State New Cases Per Million
1 Massachusetts 223
2 Nebraska 131
3 Maryland 119
4 Tennessee 106
5 Arizona 105
6 District of Columbia 101
7 Illinois 97
8 Mississippi 91
9 Rhode Island 91
10 Arkansas 89
11 Virginia 89
12 Louisiana 87
13 Connecticut 83
14 Iowa 79
15 Utah 75
16 Delaware 73
17 North Carolina 73
18 New Mexico 71
19 Wisconsin 68
20 South Dakota 63
21 Alabama 61
22 California 61
23 Minnesota 60
24 New Jersey 60
25 Indiana 58
26 New York 57
27 Michigan 54
28 Georgia 52
29 Texas 52
30 South Carolina 51
31 Kansas 46
32 North Dakota 44
33 Pennsylvania 43
34 Washington 41
35 Florida 40
36 Kentucky 40
37 Colorado 39
38 Missouri 39
39 Ohio 36
40 New Hampshire 35
41 Nevada 34
42 Idaho 25
43 Oklahoma 25
44 Puerto Rico 25
45 Maine 23
46 Alaska 21
47 Oregon 12
48 West Virginia 12
49 Wyoming 6
50 Vermont 4
51 Montana 3
52 Hawaii 0

Total deaths

Table of total deaths per million residents (all 50 states)
Ranking State Deaths Per Million
1 New York 1,537
2 New Jersey 1,337
3 Connecticut 1,118
4 Massachusetts 1,037
5 Rhode Island 700
6 District of Columbia 670
7 Louisiana 617
8 Michigan 558
9 Pennsylvania 448
10 Illinois 447
11 Maryland 436
12 Delaware 385
13 Indiana 327
14 Mississippi 262
15 Colorado 259
16 Georgia 197
17 Ohio 196
18 Minnesota 194
19 New Hampshire 194
20 Iowa 181
21 New Mexico 178
22 Virginia 167
23 Washington 150
24 Nevada 139
25 Arizona 135
26 Alabama 133
27 Missouri 130
28 Florida 119
29 California 111
30 Wisconsin 106
31 Kentucky 102
32 South Carolina 100
33 Nebraska 97
34 North Carolina 92
35 North Dakota 90
36 Vermont 88
37 Oklahoma 86
38 Kansas 77
39 Maine 70
40 South Dakota 70
41 Texas 60
42 Tennessee 56
43 Arkansas 47
44 Idaho 46
45 Puerto Rico 43
46 West Virginia 43
47 Oregon 37
48 Utah 36
49 Wyoming 29
50 Montana 15
51 Hawaii 12
52 Alaska 10

New deaths

Table of new deaths per million residents: rolling 3-day average (all 50 states)
Ranking State New Deaths Per Million
1 Massachusetts 14
2 Rhode Island 7
3 Illinois 6
4 Maryland 6
5 New Jersey 6
6 Louisiana 5
7 Mississippi 5
8 Connecticut 4
9 New Hampshire 4
10 Ohio 4
11 Pennsylvania 4
12 Arizona 3
13 Delaware 3
14 District of Columbia 3
15 Indiana 3
16 Iowa 3
17 New Mexico 3
18 New York 3
19 Colorado 2
20 Georgia 2
21 Michigan 2
22 Minnesota 2
23 North Dakota 2
24 Virginia 2
25 Alabama 1
26 California 1
27 Florida 1
28 Kansas 1
29 Kentucky 1
30 Maine 1
31 Nebraska 1
32 Nevada 1
33 North Carolina 1
34 South Carolina 1
35 Tennessee 1
36 Wisconsin 1
37 Alaska 0
38 Arkansas 0
39 Hawaii 0
40 Idaho 0
41 Missouri 0
42 Montana 0
43 Oklahoma 0
44 Oregon 0
45 Puerto Rico 0
46 South Dakota 0
47 Texas 0
48 Utah 0
49 Vermont 0
50 Washington 0
51 West Virginia 0
52 Wyoming 0

Counties

  • This section focuses on the county level. It shows tables with our counties ranked by percentile of U.S. counties for per population rates of total cases and total deaths.
    • Each table also shows the top five counties in the country in addition to our counties, for added perspecive.
  • In addition to the tables, our counties’ percentile for both total cases and total deaths are plotted over time.

Confirmed cases

Table showing total cases per million and percentile for all US counties. Includes our counties and the top 5 in the US for perspective.
County State Cases Per Million Raw Ranking Percentile
Trousdale Tennessee 123,538 1 99
Lake Tennessee 119,014 2 99
Dakota Nebraska 84,340 3 99
Lincoln Arkansas 75,553 4 99
Nobles Minnesota 72,033 5 99
Davidson Tennessee 8,284 254 91
Richland South Carolina 3,781 698 77
Pierce Washington 2,203 1110 64
Orange California 2,138 1134 63
York South Carolina 1,516 1449 53

Our county percentiles over time

Deaths

Table showing total deaths per million and percentile for all US counties. Includes our counties and the top 5 in the US for perspective.
County State Deaths Per Million Raw Ranking Percentile
Early Georgia 3,140 1 99
Terrell Georgia 3,048 2 99
Hancock Georgia 2,956 3 99
Randolph Georgia 2,803 4 99
Essex New Jersey 2,111 5 99
Richland South Carolina 159 620 80
Davidson Tennessee 94 857 72
Pierce Washington 91 876 72
Orange California 50 1209 61
York South Carolina 36 1373 56

Our county percentiles over time

Raw counts

Total confirmed cases

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

New confirmed cases

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

Total deaths

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

New deaths

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

Stay-at-home comparisons